Total Committed Ocean Warming and Acidification
Atmospheric greenhouse gas pollution is adding eat energy to the oceans at a rate of several Hiroshima atomic bombs per second. Unlike the global average surface warming ocean heat content has been increasing.
Already committed ocean warming and acidification put the future survival of the world's coral reefs in doubt.
Under current plans to keep the world economy fixed on business as usual fossil fuel dependency and no plans to reverse emissions for climate change mitigation, the coral reefs are almost certainly being condemned to death.
Science of ocean commitment
Greenhouse gas emissions in general cause ocean warming.
Ocean warming reduces the ocean turnover (vertical circulation) essential to distribute oxygen and nourishment to ocean life and to cleansing the ocean. Reducing this turn over leads to ocean stratification and de-oxygenated zones. Under ocean warming there are deep de-oxygenated zones that are already expanding.
Awareness
The fact that CO2 fossil fuel industrial economy emissions is causing ocean acidification is generally well known. to the scientific community, but according to research not to the public.
Total climate Change commitment
The Climate Emergency Institute has introduced the term total climate change commitment, to cover all the sources of global warming.
Today's total committed global warming is a crucial most policy relevant factor in determining plans for climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Ocean heat lag
The term climate change commitment is used by the science to only cover the large extra warming we already committed to due to the ocean heat lag. This is one big way that the Word Ocean determines the global average surface warming that we experience on the land.
Committed ocean warming and acidfication
For the 2014 AGU Ocean Sciences Conference we introduce the concept of committed ocean warming and acidification.
Committed ocean warming.
95% of the additional heat from accumulated atmospheric GHGs as gone to ocean warming. Ocean heat content increases in lock step with total radiative forcing atmospheric CO2 equivalent and atmospheric CO2.
Therefore atmospheric CO2 Eq provides a direct correlation with committed ocean warming, just as for global warming. This covers committed ocean warming from the ocean heat (lag) and possible ocean warming from the air pollution aerosol cooling factor.
It does not cover warming due to the time taken to stabilize atmospheric GHGs nor the extra warming amplifying carbon feedbacks.
We have estimated total committed global warming accounting for all unavoidable warming sources at 2.8C by 2100 and at least 3.2C long after 2100.
We there for know from today's committed ocean warming coral reefs most corals may be lost and a state of emergency exists to address global warming.
Committed ocean acidification
Ocean acidification increases with its cause- atmospheric CO2 concentration.
We are committed to already to much higher levels of atmospheric CO2.
This is due to the time taken to stabilize atmospheric CO2 and to extra carbon feedback carbon emissions.
The two carbon emissions are CO2 and CH4 methane.
Methane emissions are a source of CO2 because methane is partly oxidized to CO2 in the atmosphere.
First atmospheric CO2 requires CO2 emissions be reduced to virtual zero.
Anything less that stopping all industrial carbon emissions
Almost all the published science assumes 50 years or more to stabilize atmospheric CO2.
The IPCC says this estimate is not in its purview but refers to a study that found a warming of 1.3C
Already committed ocean warming and acidification put the future survival of the world's coral reefs in doubt.
Under current plans to keep the world economy fixed on business as usual fossil fuel dependency and no plans to reverse emissions for climate change mitigation, the coral reefs are almost certainly being condemned to death.
Science of ocean commitment
Greenhouse gas emissions in general cause ocean warming.
Ocean warming reduces the ocean turnover (vertical circulation) essential to distribute oxygen and nourishment to ocean life and to cleansing the ocean. Reducing this turn over leads to ocean stratification and de-oxygenated zones. Under ocean warming there are deep de-oxygenated zones that are already expanding.
Awareness
The fact that CO2 fossil fuel industrial economy emissions is causing ocean acidification is generally well known. to the scientific community, but according to research not to the public.
Total climate Change commitment
The Climate Emergency Institute has introduced the term total climate change commitment, to cover all the sources of global warming.
Today's total committed global warming is a crucial most policy relevant factor in determining plans for climate change mitigation and adaptation.
Ocean heat lag
The term climate change commitment is used by the science to only cover the large extra warming we already committed to due to the ocean heat lag. This is one big way that the Word Ocean determines the global average surface warming that we experience on the land.
Committed ocean warming and acidfication
For the 2014 AGU Ocean Sciences Conference we introduce the concept of committed ocean warming and acidification.
Committed ocean warming.
95% of the additional heat from accumulated atmospheric GHGs as gone to ocean warming. Ocean heat content increases in lock step with total radiative forcing atmospheric CO2 equivalent and atmospheric CO2.
Therefore atmospheric CO2 Eq provides a direct correlation with committed ocean warming, just as for global warming. This covers committed ocean warming from the ocean heat (lag) and possible ocean warming from the air pollution aerosol cooling factor.
It does not cover warming due to the time taken to stabilize atmospheric GHGs nor the extra warming amplifying carbon feedbacks.
We have estimated total committed global warming accounting for all unavoidable warming sources at 2.8C by 2100 and at least 3.2C long after 2100.
We there for know from today's committed ocean warming coral reefs most corals may be lost and a state of emergency exists to address global warming.
Committed ocean acidification
Ocean acidification increases with its cause- atmospheric CO2 concentration.
We are committed to already to much higher levels of atmospheric CO2.
This is due to the time taken to stabilize atmospheric CO2 and to extra carbon feedback carbon emissions.
The two carbon emissions are CO2 and CH4 methane.
Methane emissions are a source of CO2 because methane is partly oxidized to CO2 in the atmosphere.
First atmospheric CO2 requires CO2 emissions be reduced to virtual zero.
Anything less that stopping all industrial carbon emissions
Almost all the published science assumes 50 years or more to stabilize atmospheric CO2.
The IPCC says this estimate is not in its purview but refers to a study that found a warming of 1.3C
CLIMATE EMERGENCY INSTITUTE
The health and human rights approach to climate change
The health and human rights approach to climate change