Refugees 

 The Health and Human Rights Approach to Greenhouse Gas Pollution 

Recent trends


Climate change forces millions to leave their homes annually, with estimations suggesting up to 1.2 billion people could be displaced globally by 2050 due to environmental disasters and rising sea levels. In 2022 alone, 32.6 million people were internally displaced by climate-related disasters.


Annual Displacement: Approximately 21.5 million people are, on average, forcibly displaced each year by weather-related events such as floods, storms, and droughts.
Recent Trends: 2022 saw a record 32.6 million, with 98% of these displacements caused by weather-related hazards.
Future Projections: Forecasts suggest 1.2 billion people could be displaced by 2050.
Vulnerability: Around 90% of the world's refugees currently come from countries most vulnerable to climate change.
Rising Sea Levels: An estimated 267 million people live in areas that could be submerged by rising sea levels.

While the majority of mobility in the context of environmental and climate change more generally, including disaster displacement, occurs within the borders of countries, some people are forced to move abroad. 

Climate Change Could Force 216 Million People to Migrate Within Their Own Countries by 2050

Sept. 13, 2021—The World Bank’s updated Groundswell report 

The report finds that climate change, an increasingly potent driver of migration, could force 216 million people across six world regions to move within their countries by 2050. Hotspots of internal climate migration could emerge as early as 2030 and continue to spread and intensify by 2050. The report also finds that immediate and concerted action to reduce global emissions, and support green, inclusive, and resilient development, could reduce the scale of climate migration by as much as 80 percent.

Climate change is a powerful driver of internal migration because of its impacts on people’s livelihoods and loss of livability in highly exposed locations. By 2050, Sub-Saharan Africa could see as many as 86 million internal climate migrants; East Asia and the Pacific, 49 million; South Asia, 40 million; North Africa, 19 million; Latin America, 17 million; and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 5 million.


“The Groundswell report is a stark reminder of the human toll of climate change, particularly on the world’s poorest—those who are contributing the least to its causes. It also clearly lays out a path for countries to address some of the key factors that are causing climate-driven migration,” said Juergen Voegele, Vice President of Sustainable Development, World Bank. “All these issues are fundamentally connected which is why our support to countries is positioned to deliver on climate and development objectives together while building a more sustainable, safe and resilient future.”

The updated report includes projections and analysis for three regions: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. It builds on the novel and pioneering modeling approach of the previous World Bank Groundswell report from 2018, which covered Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America.

By deploying a scenario-based approach, the report explores potential future outcomes, which can help decision-makers plan ahead. The approach allows for the identification of internal climate in- and out- migration hotspots, namely the areas from which people are expected to move due to increasing water scarcity, declining crop productivity, and sea-level rise, and urban and rural areas with better conditions to build new livelihoods.

By deploying a scenario-based approach, the report explores potential future outcomes, which can help decision-makers plan ahead. The approach allows for the identification of internal climate in- and out- migration hotspots, namely the areas from which people are expected to move due to increasing water scarcity, declining crop productivity, and sea-level rise, and urban and rural areas with better conditions to build new livelihoods.