CLIMATE EMERGENCY INSTITUTE
The Health and Human Rights Approach to Greenhouse Gas Pollution
CLIMATE SYSTEM EMERGENCY INSTITUTE
15 April 2016 Fossil fuels could be phased out worldwide in a decade
AGU conference December 2020
Town Hall session
Presenters Peter Carter, Reese Halter
CLIMATE CHANGE LEGACY REFERENCES AND RESOURCES
Legacy References in the Climate Change Literature
IPCC 2018, 1.5°C Report, Ch. 1: “Some dimensions might be more time sensitive or sequential than others (i.e., if conditions are such that it is no longer geophysically feasible to avoid overshooting 1.5°C, the social and institutional feasibility of avoiding overshoot will be no longer relevant). Path dependencies, risks of legacy lock-ins related to existing infrastructures, and possibilities of acceleration permitted by cumulative effects (e.g., dramatic cost decreases driven by learning-by-doing) are all key features to be captured.”
IPCC 2018, 1.5°C Report, Ch. 3: “For systems with significant inertia, such as vegetation or soil carbon stores, changes in carbon storage will depend on the rate of change of forcing and thus depend on the choice of scenario.”
Mengel, Matthias (20 February 2018). Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action. Nature Communications.
McGushin, Alice (31 May 2018). Climate Change and Human Health: Health Impacts of Warming of 1.5°C and 2°C. Int J Environ Res Public Health. “Researchers and healthcare professionals have a key role to play in characterizing and communicating the health dangers associated with climate change and the gains to be made from achieving emissions targets which will save lives and leave a healthy legacy for current and future generations.”
Wilder, Rob & Dan Kammen (12 September 2017). Taking the Long View: The ‘Forever Legacy’ of Climate Change. “Climate change projections often focus on 2100. But the geological record shows that unless we rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we will be locking in drastic increases in temperatures and sea levels that will alter the earth not just for centuries, but for millennia.”
Knutti, Reto & Joeri Rogelj (03 February 2015). The legacy of our CO2 emissions: a clash of scientific facts, politics and ethics.
Crucial US Statements
2 December 2020 , UN chief denounces ‘suicidal’ failure to tackle climate change2 December 2020 UN: Warmer world in 2020 busted weather records
2 December 2020 WMO 2020 on track to be one of three warmest years on record
25 June 2020 UN Climate Secretariat Patricia Espinosa The UN Climate Secretariat Patricia Espinosa. tweeted: "To avoid runaway climate change we must act now.
Opening of COP 25, Madrid, Monday 2 December 2019 Statement by IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee Our assessments show that... greenhouse gas emissions must start to peak from next year. The Three special reports reconfirm the urgent need for immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.
19 Oct 2018 UN Sec UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ If we do not change course in the next two years, we risk runaway climate change. We need urgent and unprecedented climate action in all areas.
10 Sept 2018 UN Secretary-General António Guterres The world is facing “a direct existential threat” and must rapidly shift from dependence on fossil fuels by 2020 to prevent “runaway climate change.”
15 May 2018 UN Sec. General Climate change is an 'existential threat' to most life on the planet, including and especially humankind, UN chief warns World Summit
IPCC panel COP 14 Lima , 2014 Climate change is set to inflict “severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts” on people and the natural world unless carbon emissions are cut sharply and rapidly.
The greenhouse gas Earth emergency: The legacy of many — now unavoidable — Earth system and human system impacts
All adverse indicators of atmospheric greenhouse pollution are still increasing extremely fast, with most accelerating.
Current atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are now at levels that have a legacy of multiple disastrous to catastrophic impacts on all Earth systems and systems of human society.
As the UN Secretary General has stated, climate change "is an existential threat to most life on the planet including especially humankind."
To mitigate now severe unavoidable impacts, global emissions have to decline rapidly from this year (2020), as emphasized by Dr. H. Lee, IPCC Chair, at the Madrid UN COP25 (2019).
The IPCC mitigation projections have CO2 emissions dropping to net zero by 2050, with virtual zero fossil fuel energy and near zero CO2 emissions.
Data trends show the biosphere trending to collapse, and the situation rapidly spiralling out of our control. No plan or agreement exists other than to keep emissions at record amounts, with continued fossil fuel subsidies.
The present generation of young people needs the whole of the scientific community to get up to speed on the state of the planet as THE science priority, and to make strong global emergency recommendations to the public and policy makers for the immediate and rapid decline of global emissions, including immediate termination of subsidies.
This features the greatest science venture, ever; to rescue the future by a massive R&D Manhattan-Apollo-Marshall model project to rapidly replace all fossil fuel energy and direct air extract large amounts of CO2, with a large upgrading of planetary monitoring. This Town Hall will present comprehensive data trends, energy projections, state of UN climate negotiations, and effective mitigation strategies (non-polluting conversion of current goods and services). Participants will be invited to discuss the priorities, options and logistics for this massive science venture.
The existential atmospheric GHG pollution threats (15 May 2018 UN Sec. General Climate change is an 'existential threat' to most life on the planet, including and especially humankind, UN chief warnsWorld Summit)
- World agriculture for humanity- multiple adverse impacts
- Boosted acceleration to the accelerating 6th mass extinction
- Oceans collapse from heating+acidification+deoxgygenation (land life survival is dependent on oceans functionsing)
- Runaway climate change & oceans change (Hot house Earth) from multiple inter-rreinforcing (permafrost thaw-down self reinforcing) enormous feedback sources, that affect land and oceans. Worst of all threats to all life.
The planetary emergency
Response from the world of science
Mission Earth
The Greatest Science Venture and Science Legacy Ever
There is no plan for accelerating degradation of the climate and oceans other than to continue the suicidal destruction
A scientists’ climate and oceans Manhattan-Marshall revival plan to save our world and our children
National Academies/Royal Societies issue global climate emergency statement suggesting an emergency Manhattan-Marshall planet Earth revival project – the greatest venture ever, a legacy for liveable the future – a future worth living
Suggesting:
World governments immediately terminate or all fossil fuel industry subsidies and recovery incentives, and
Charge an escalating GHG pollution fee to central polluters.
Fund raise from corporations and borrow start up funds from the global banking corporations.
Switch government funding from military aerospace to Earth
Divert $475 Billion (25% of $1.9 Trillion) from military to Earth revival , with immediate increase to Earth monitoring
Divert $200 billion (25% of $ 800 billion) from aerospace to Earth revival with increase to Earth monitoring.
Deliverables
Conversion of the global fossil fuel energized economy to 100% clean zero-combustion renewable (everlasting) united world economy
Rapid upgrade of today's zero combustion electrical power, global smart electricity grids, rapid development and deployment of high energy dense zero combustion power ( e.g. concentrated solar thermal, deep geothermal, compact liquid salt cooled fission)ki
Safe secure direct air extraction of CO2 (requires dedicated large energy supply to run
Conversion of food production to low GHG intensive Fruit-nuts (& seeds)-vegetable healthy united world diet
Federal government warnings on US agriculture
2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment (USA)
9. Agriculture and Food
Rising temperatures, extreme heat, drought, wildfire on rangelands, and heavy downpours are expected to increasingly disrupt agricultural productivity in the United States. Expected increases in challenges to crop health, declines in crop yields and quality, and changes in extreme events in the United States and abroad, threaten rural livelihoods, sustainable food security and price stability.
Climate change presents numerous challenges to sustaining and enhancing crop productivity, livestock health and the economic vitality of rural communities. While some regions such as the northern great plains may see conditions conducive to expanded or alternative crop productivity over the next few decades, overall yields from major U.S. crops are expected to decline as a consequence of increases in temperatures, possibly changes in water availability, soil erosion and disease and pest outbreaks. Increases in growing temperatures during the growing season in the Midwest are projected to be the largest contributing factor to declines in the productivity of U.S. agriculture. Projected increases in extreme heat conditions are expected to lead to further heat stress for livestock which can lead to large economic losses for producers. Climate change is also expected to lead to large scale shifts in the availability and prices of many agricultural products around the world with corresponding impacts on U.S. agricultural producers, and the U.S. economy. These changes threaten future gains in commodity crop production and poor rural life hoods at risk.
2015, USDA, Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System
The assessment finds that climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. ...damaging outcomes become increasingly likely in all cases from 2050–2100 under higher emissions scenarios.
As climate change continues and temperature increases of 1–3 °C are coupled with
changes in precipitation timing and intensity, yields and farm returns are projected to decline. The
continued changes expected between 2050 and 2100 under high-emissions scenarios are expected to have overall detrimental effects on most crops and livestock. Finally, it should be recognized that there is a significant chance that current projections underestimate potential declines, because most analyses exclude production constraints arising from increased pest pressures, extreme events, and decreased ecosystems services
